1. I hope the names on my prayer list find out that Jesus changes everything.
2. I hope the names on your prayer list find Jesus too (you are daily praying for folks to find Jesus, aren’t you?)
3. I hope the wars in Ukraine and Israel/Gaza end
4. I hope the neighbors of Central Church think the church is a great neighbor.
5. I hope people don’t go nuts during this election year
6. I hope you consider reading the Bible-through-in-a-year
7. I hope Conrad’s first word is “Grandpa”
8. I hope the Lions win the Super Bowl (vs. the Kansas City Chiefs… so I can up trash-talking skills to my friends in KC)
9. I hope the Michigan Wolverines win a National Championship in football (see above trash-talking skills which I would apply mostly to my Buckeye and Sparty fan friends).
10. I hope gun violence in the United States declines (I hope it was no more)
11. I hope the people who disagree with each other can have a charitable conversations.
12. I hope the USA wins the most medals in the Paris Olympics
13. I hope all those caring for a sick spouse, elderly parent or special needs child can find a bit of rest and relief.
14. I hope people talking with phone on speaker at any store will run out of battery (the lone exception: When a husband is facetiming his wife to get her opinion on which holiday napkins to purchase. His choice will be wrong and another trip to Wal-mart will happen without such call.  Or so I’ve been told… ahem…). 
15. I hope the lonely find a friend
16. I hope the afraid find courage and strength and a place to freely express their concerns.
17. I hope ALL CAPS people stop using ALL CAPS! 
18. I hope that everyone feels welcome to attend Central Church. (By “Everyone” I mean anyone. If breathing… they are welcome).
19. I hope the Pistons win at least one game in 2024 (a bigger hope than you might think)
20. I hope people who back into parking spaces in a crowded parking lot know that irritates some people (ahem, pastors included)
21. I hope everyone knows what a great team of pastors, office staff, facility crew, tech team and nursery staff we are blessed with at Central church
22. I hope we all are a little more grateful and a little more generous and a little less cranky in 2024
23. I hope you decide to be in church mostly in person (on-line when unable) every Sunday in 2024.
24. I hope every reader of my lil’ 24 Hope List has a very good and happy New Year!

BONUS HOPE: I hope you and your family will end the year in church this Sunday! (Even better if its Central Church). –technically that is my last “hope” of 2023. 

A year ago, I wrote a blog concerning the Churches of the Nazarene with an attendance of 1000+. The article stated how 51 churches (there are actually 52) in the USA/Canada had at one time averaged 1000+ in attendance, but only 19 churches were still averaging over 1000. The article listed the challenges to maintain a church of 1,000. You can read it here.  

One year later, the 2023 church year statistics have been posted* and the news is much worse. “In person” attendance across the board is plummeting.* No longer are 19 churches averaging 1000+. In 2023, only eleven churches reported having an in-person attendance over 1000. Moreover, only two of the eleven 1,000+ churches reported to “in-person” attendance growth: Lima Community, OH (+176) and Crossroads Cowboy, AR (+130). Only Crossroads Cowboy posted their best attendance year ever in 2023.

In a recent statement on X (formerly Twitter), Carey Neuhoff stated, “The “Stable” Church Is Disappearing. One-Third of Churches Report That They’re Growing, While 54% Are Declining.” It’s worse among the Nazarene churches that once averaged over 1000. Only eleven of the 52 churches reported growth (21.15%). Churches that showed an increase worship attendance are: Crossroads Cowboy (+130); Indianapolis First (+37); Kankakee First (+70); Lake Gibson, FL (+72); Lima, OH (+176); Nashville First (+72); Orlando CenterPoint, FL (+61); Pasadena First, CA (+35), Puyallup, WA (+162); Salem OR (+28), The Woods, MI (+209); and York Stillmeadow, PA (+139). 

Full disclosure: Flint Central Church (where I pastor) reported decline in attendance. In 2022, churches were instructed to include both in-person and on-line worshippers in the tally. In 2023 those two groups of worshippers were separated. Flint Central and other churches, no doubt, declined in attendance in part because of the decision to separate on-line and in-person worshippers (see the highest on-line attendance chart of the 52 churches).

There are 12 USA/Canada Nazarene churches that at one time averaged 2,000+. Last year,  three churches that reported 2000+. In 2023, only Oro Valley, AZ reported an in-person attendance over 2,000. Oro Valley, the largest church in USA/Canada, reported an attendance of 2033 , which was a decline of 557 from 2022. Bethany First saw its attendance dip below 2,000 for the first time in 41 years. Denver First, at one time the largest Nazarene congregation in the world averaging 2555, last year averaged just 306. Likewise, Salem Oregon at one time averaged 2309, last year reported an attendance of 358.

What are the learning points from these numbers?

1) Post Covid In-person attendance is down in most churches (not earth breaking news). The De-Churching of America is happening within the Church of the Nazarene as it is most other denominations. 

2) Even strong healthy churches are seeing their numbers decline. The decline is not necessarily because people are leaving (some are), but rather people are not attending in-person as much as they did pre-Covid.** Worshippers discovered that on-line is convenient. Any other commitment later in the day, a slight sickness or no desire of getting ready for church – are reasons for worshipping on-line. The “responsibility list” may not have changed much, but in-person attendance has changed.

3) Expect 2024 in-person attendance numbers to increase in healthy churches. With the separation of on-line and in-person numbers, and folks in 2023 still not fully returning from Covid, it may be that 2023 was rock bottom for the strong and healthy churches. No longer hampered by pandemic fatigue and re-starting programs and ministries, congregants are trickling back into the healthy churches. An increase (although not at pre-pandemic numbers) will likely occur.

3) On-line worshippers aren’t going away. Nearly every church listed on-line attendance but those numbers varied greatly from the Wooster, OH’s 930 to Lake Gibson, FL listing 16 on-line viewers (two of the 52 churches did not report an online attendance). Either some churches don’t worry about their on-line presence (they should) or they don’t have enough tech people/money to help in this area (more likely). Still on-line numbers matter. Not only is it the new “front door” to the church (most new comers have watched a service online first), on-line viewership is also the new “front pew.” For many “regular attendance” is now regularly watching the service on-line.

4) Covid may have hit the accelerator on the De-churching of America, but more importantly Covid exposed the heart of the church in America. It’s not good. Our discipleship methods have not produced whole-hearted Christ-like disciples. The battle for the heart of the Church of the Nazarene is underway between a “fundamentalist-like,” legalistic brand of holiness and a left-leaning, “progressive” brand. Young clergy (and others) see the in-fighting between these extremist camps and are walking away. Time will tell if the Church of the Nazarene will maintain its historic via media or middle way outlook and presence.

4) A metric change is needed (ironically, this article included). Counting “Noses and Nickels” (attendance and giving) is what historically has mattered. Tallying baptisms, number of people who are actively serving within the church, hours served within the community, and benevolence dollars spent on the needy are the metrics we should be tracking. I wrote about this here.

6) A vision for the new reality is needed for churches to break the 1,000-barrier or regain what was lost. Building a congregation is difficult these days. There are so many competing ideologies in a Post-Christian America, but it is not impossible for churches to grow. Real, authentic, loving, serving, missional congregations are still appealing especially to many millennials who are beginning to rethink their spiritual status. Churches that are appealing are the ones with vision for a better tomorrow. 

7). The 2024 emphasis from USA/Canada to “bless our community” as part of the ”cycle of resurgence” is a good starting point. Dr. Stan Reeder, no doubt, has seen these troubling trends and is making an effort to change the trajectory of the USA/Canada church. Reeder correctly assessed that Nazarenes must get out of their church buildings and into their communities through which ministry can happen and lives can be changed. 

Conclusion: 
Covid did not kill the strongest Nazarene churches, but it has crippled some. There are greater challenges today than ever for churches in USA/Canada. Few churches have totally recovered from the pandemic. The 2024 election cycle will create even more heartache (election years always do). Still, hope lies in what the Spirit of God might do if churches bless their community, believe that Jesus changes everything and are committed to coming together in unity. Hope lies in the old adage: “Bloom where planted.” Local churches authentically loving and serving in their communities is the hope for the Church of the Nazarene’s future just as it was the impetus to growth in the very beginning days of the Church of the Nazarene.

Top In-Person Attendance Churches (1000+ in-person attendance)

1. Oro Valley, AZ (2033)
2. Bethany, OK (1809)
3. Lakeland, FL Highland Park (1547)
4. Goshen, IN Crossroads (1471)
5. Beavercreek, OH Be Hope (1449)
6. Grove City, OH (1389)
7. Crossroads Cowboy (1365)
8. Olathe, KS College (1231)
9. Cincinnati OH Springdale (1194)
10. Lima, OH (1076)
11. Wooster, OH (1072)

Top Ten On-Line Attendance***

1. Wooster OH (930) 
2. Oro Valley (833) 
3. Be One, OH (828) 
4. Grove City, OH (780)
5. Flint Central, MI (597)
6. Bethany First (594)
7. Lakeland FL Highland Park (586)
8. Pismo Beach, CA (471)
9. Cincinnati OH Springdale (435)
10. Yuba, CA Hope Point (434)

*The 2023 South Florida attendance statistics listed are the exact same numbers as they were in 2022. Clearly those statistics of the former 1000+ churches in South Florida (Bradenton, Miami Bethany and Miami Hialeah Good Shepherd) are not accurate. 

**Giving numbers in the former 1000+ churches for the most part remains high (I didn’t do a thorough assessment of the giving). Antidotally, it seems that church giving has remained relatively constant even as attendance numbers plummet. One reason for this phenomenon is that people have not left a church, but rather their attendance patterns have changed and they continue to give at the same level.

***This list is only a measurement of those churches that at one time averaged over 1000 in attendance. These may be other churches that averaged a higher on-line attendance than those listed.

Once upon a time, there was a hungry man. With no food in his cupboards and some extra cash in his pocket, the hungry man went to a restaurant near his house. He had driven by this restaurant many times, but had never stopped in for a meal. He decided to try it. Big mistake!

When he walked in there was no host or hostess to ask him how many were in his party or if he’s like to be seated. He wasn’t certain what to do. Finally he just sat down. After a very long wait, the food server finally came to his table and was quite rude. He mentioned something about how the man was sitting in “Jerry’s Booth.” “Who’s Jerry?” the man wondered. The menu was confusing and overpriced. When his order finally game, it looked terrible. It smelled and tasted worse. Nothing about this restaurant was good. Nothing. He left a meager tip, paid his bill and left. As he walked out of the door, he said, “I will never eat at another restaurant again. This place was horrible!”  We went home and took an antiacid and had bad dreams all night long.

About a week later, a friend invited the man out to dinner. “Oh no, I can’t go,” he said. “I went to a restaurant once. The service as bad. The prices were high. The food was terrible. I vowed to never go to a restaurant again.”  A few months later another friend invited him out for dinner. “Oh no, I can’t go,” he said. “I went to a restaurant once. The service as bad. The prices were high. The food was terrible. I vowed to never go to a restaurant again.” Other friends asked too. His response was always the same. 

His friends told him, “We won’t go to the restaurant of your bad experience. Not all restaurants are the same. We will go to a good one.”

The man would not budge. “They all serve food that no one can stomach. I’ll never go again!” No one could convince him otherwise. He refused to go to any restaurant to eat, no matter how many friends went or how many good reviews the restaurant received.

The man went to a church once too. It wasn’t good either. He’s not been back.

The moral of the story: No one declares after getting a bad meal at restaurant, that they will never go to any other restaurant again. Instead, they find a good restaurant. It’s the same with churches. There are bad churches. There are good churches. Find a good church. Invite your friends. Make it an even better church. 

The end.

P.S. I’m super biased but Central Church is a really good church.